The Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) is upon us and the guys from EM Over Easy are facing it head-on. In part 4; Andy, Tanner, and Drew discuss how the past couple weeks have been and how we are dealing with COVID-19 at work, at home, and with our family and friends. Our hope is to discuss this in a way that brings our listeners to the front lines with us and for those that are already there, to know they are not alone.
COVID 19 Part 4
Two of our go-to sources right now for keeping track of the pandemic is the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center which has worldwide numbers including cases, deaths, and trajectory of the disease. The second from IHME provides U.S. and state modeling of the impact of the virus based on cases and precautions taken. If the modeling from them is right, states like Ohio have made a major impact in terms of both cases and expected healthcare resource utilization. Based on the continually updated modeling, most of the country seems to have flattened the curve!
Lying ahead is what happens as we start to emerge and reopen society in the coming weeks and months…
The Storm, or is it just a sprinkle?
Because of our collective incredible efforts, much of the country has experienced a much lower case count and impact than originally predicted. This is not because coronavirus isn’t severe or serious, it is, but rather because society headed the warnings and listened to the health experts. There is no doubt this is an amazing feat and one we should all be proud of.
We may have won the first battle in much of the country, but the war rages on. As we reopen society, which is so critical for us to do, what will the virus do? While we don’t know exactly lies ahead, several models are trying to predict was the next month will look like. As we have been saying all along, we cannot relax on how seriously we take this virus, it is going to be with us for a while and we will see intermittent spikes in cases until a cure or vaccine is found.
The magic bullet
Well, right now it doesn’t exist… at least not yet. While there have been many treatments touted as effective, the evidence doesn’t support any specific medication regimen at this point. Science has been looking for pandemic cures for centuries, sometimes we latch onto hope and not evidence. On the bright side, the scientific community is already making remarkable progress on a vaccine, though it’s still a ways off.
Testing continues to be a major hurdle for understanding, treating, and getting ahead of this virus. While testing for both active disease and immunity is improving, we are plagued by tests that we just don’t know right now how accurate many of them are. Without getting too far into the weeds, testing is being rolled out before reliable data can be collected in sensitivity and specificity, right now we don’t really even have a “gold standard” to compare these test to.
Ultimately, what we need is herd immunity. This will come in two ways, with recovered patients having immunity and then the rest of the population getting vaccinated.
On a positive note
While this virus as been devastating in so many ways, we have all been overwhelmed by the displays of humanity and goodwill. Keep it up, together, we will get through this.
UNTIL WE TALK AGAIN, WASH THOSE HANDS, COVER YOUR COUGH, KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE AND PLEASE REACH-OUT TO US ABOUT HOW YOU ARE DOING.